Clinton v. Trump: Swing state tie obscures deeper divisions

The election is nearly six months from now. And yes, it’s risky to place too much weight on any one poll. But the just-released Quinnipiac survey of three key swing states—Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—challenges complacent assumptions and suggests that the election will be closely contested. CONT. William A. Galston, Brookings […] Read more »

No, the Battleground States Are Not a Terrific Fit for Donald Trump

Polls from Quinnipiac University this morning showed very close races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. (He leads her by four percentage points in Ohio.) Nate Cohn, The Upshot’s politics analyst, and Toni Monkovic, an Upshot editor, discussed the polls and other battleground states in […] Read more »

Titanic Tuesday: Trump Leads but Doesn’t Finish the Job

Donald Trump could have generated unstoppable momentum had he won both Ohio and Florida. But now it’s clear to everyone that this will go right through June 7, the end of the Republican primary season. Most observers appear to think that the Republicans are headed for a contested convention now, […] Read more »

Trump’s Path Stays Clearest; Clinton’s, Perhaps More So

This much came clear in the March 15 presidential primaries: Many voters like Donald Trump, while many others don’t. John Kasich is popular in his home state, while Marco Rubio isn’t. Strong conservatives support Ted Cruz. And Hillary Clinton can win Midwestern primaries. For Clinton, that might be enough, or […] Read more »