In Ohio, which is so critical to Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes, it is Hillary Clinton who has extended her lead and is now up six points, 46 percent to 40 percent; she was up four points in July. … In Iowa, the two are even, each with 40 percent support. […] Read more »
Ticket-Splitters Could Be Key for Vulnerable GOP Senate Incumbents
Of all the campaign issues that incumbent Republican senators face in 2016, the most vexing may be Donald Trump. As their party’s presidential nominee sinks in the polls, Republican senators in battleground states must decide if they should align with him or hitch their fortunes to that rarest group of […] Read more »
Four Takeaways From the Latest Battleground Polls
Seven new battleground polls, seven states where Hillary Clinton holds a lead against Donald Trump. Those are the results from the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, which found Hillary Clinton ahead in Iowa (by four points), Ohio (by five), Florida (by five), North Carolina (by nine), Pennsylvania (by 11), […] Read more »
Walmart Moms Focus Group Video
As part of our continuing series of focus groups among Walmart Moms, Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Margie Omero of Penn Schoen Berland conducted two focus groups on Tuesday, August 9, 2016. We have tracked these Walmart Moms – defined as voters with children under 18 in their […] Read more »
Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall
At FiveThirtyEight, we generally prefer state polls to national polls. So far, though, we haven’t had much of them to work with. If you’re getting dozens of national polls every week, but just a smattering of state-level surveys — and that’s what we’ve been getting — you’re better off inferring […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Increases in Three Battleground States
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in three key battleground states after the conclusion of the political conventions, including in all-important Ohio, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »