Election Forecast Models Clouded By Economy’s Slow Growth

… Sophisticated models in the past have bolstered arguments that presidential elections are mostly predetermined by the economy. This time, some concede that the plodding recovery may not tilt the balance toward either candidate. Instead, the costly, cross-country political campaign, which these forecasters have dismissed as irrelevant, may tip the […] Read more »

Convention Impact Update

… Efforts to use the conventions to change the minds of those who are voting for the opposite party’s candidate present a real challenge, given that a lot of those people simply aren’t watching. That doesn’t mean that the opponent’s people don’t pick up some news of the convention through […] Read more »