… Has the economy lost some of its ability to influence politics? Not at all, says Ray C. Fair, the Yale economics professor who uses economic data to predict presidential elections. As the final stretch of the campaign begins, Professor Fair’s equations suggest that the economy is a liability for […] Read more »
The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll implements an innovative way to forecast the results of the U.S. presidential election that will be held on November 4, 2012. Its two main innovations are that respondents are asked to express the percent chance of voting for each candidate and that the […] Read more »
Closing Night of Democratic National Convention Draws 35.7 million Viewers
An estimated 35.7 million people watched the third and final night of the 2012 Democratic National Convention on Thursday, September 6. [cont.] Nielsen Read more »
How Obama Pollster Sees Road Ahead
Joel Benenson, chief pollster for the Obama campaign, said Democrats are confident of their chances with the relatively small share of remaining undecided voters in the presidential election, particularly because of the president’s appeal to women and young voters among them. [cont.] Wall Street Journal Read more »
Obama Bounces Up to 52% Approval, 48% to 45% Over Romney
President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party look as if they are getting at least a preliminary bounce from their convention. Today’s (Friday, Sept. 7) Gallup Daily tracking update puts Obama’s job approval rating at 52%, the highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin […] Read more »
A Tenuous Advantage for Obama
The back-to-back national party conventions sharpened the arguments of President Obama and Mitt Romney, but they probably did little to reshape the dynamics of a razor-thin race that has demonstrated remarkable stability for months. After the marathon of speeches, videos, wall-to-wall coverage, and the occasional snafu, most analysts believe the […] Read more »