… Has the economy lost some of its ability to influence politics?
Not at all, says Ray C. Fair, the Yale economics professor who uses economic data to predict presidential elections. As the final stretch of the campaign begins, Professor Fair’s equations suggest that the economy is a liability for President Obama.
But while the economy is weak, Professor Fair says, it’s not all that weak, so his model is producing an emotionally unsatisfying result: based on the state of the economy alone, this election is just too close to call. [cont.]
Jeff Sommer, New York Times