Most likely voters — including both Democrats and Republicans — say the winner of the presidential election should be decided by popular vote, not the electoral college, according to the latest release of the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. [cont.] Jon Cohen, Washington Post Read more »
Romney Has a Problem In Pennsylvania: Math
With just one week before next Tuesday’s presidential election, the Romney campaign has apparently decided to embark on a last-minute effort to win the Keystone State. But while Pennsylvania is always tempting for Republicans, there’s a reason Democrats always seem to win by a slight margin. [cont.] Nate Cohn, The […] Read more »
The Statistical Significance of Sandy Could Alter Electoral, Popular-Vote Math
… Imagine a scenario in which Romney edges Obama by 100,000 in Ohio, 30,000 in Iowa, 15,000 in New Hampshire, and 50,000 in Virginia. That’s 41 electoral votes with a microscopic edge of 195,000 votes in four states. That 195,000 would be slightly more than a third of the average […] Read more »
The Nate Silver backlash
It seems to happen every few weeks. The race tightens or widens or simply continues on exactly as it’s been and some pundit or reporter declares it a staggering humiliation for the burgeoning world of election quants. [cont.] Ezra Klein, Washington Post Read more »
Medicare Fails to Sway Senior Voters
… Senior citizens are a coveted voting bloc in Florida, where they make up about a quarter of the electorate in this highly contested swing state. They are especially important for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, given his deficit among young voters and minorities, according to polls. … Polls now […] Read more »
NPR Poll Finds Presidential Race Too Close To Call
The latest and last NPR Battleground Poll for 2012 shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holding the narrowest of leads in the national sample, but trailing President Obama in the dozen states that will decide the election. The poll adds evidence that the Oct. 3 debate between the two men […] Read more »