I am a political statistician, or, perhaps I should say, a statistical political scientist. Announcing this to someone can elicit diminished eye contact, but every four years I experience a temporary surge in popularity. For months now people I know have been stopping me on the street to ask who […] Read more »
The Polling Bias Debate
When the term “unskewed polls” entered the political lexicon this fall, courtesy of a conservative blogger convinced that national pollsters were missing a looming Romney landslide, there was a lot of talk about how the right’s polling skepticism was ushering in a landscape in which every observer would become a […] Read more »
Race Narrows as Campaign Enters Its Final Week
President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the campaign in an exceedingly narrow race, according to the latest poll by The New York Times and CBS News, with more voters now viewing Mr. Romney as a stronger leader on the economy and Mr. Obama as a better […] Read more »
Storm puts close race on pause
Before Superstorm Sandy put the presidential race on pause, President Obama held just a one-point lead over Mitt Romney nationally, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll, while voters continue to see Romney as stronger on the economy. In the final days of the campaign, the storm […] Read more »
Tighter Gender Gap, Sharper Partisanship – But No Change in the Bottom Line
A tightening of the gender gap and a closer race among political independents mark trends among likely voters the past several days, but with no meaningful change to the bottom line in the evenly matched 2012 presidential race. [cont.] Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
Chance of Split Electoral-Popular Vote Very Real
Despite the playing field pretty much agreed upon, when you get down to the last handful or so of states, the best polling firms from each party are coming up with widely disparate results, with very different turnout assumptions as the best explanation for the disparity. [cont.] Charlie Cook Read more »