Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in three key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, according to new Fox News statewide surveys of Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Support for reelecting Trump falls below his 2016 vote share in each state. At the same time, there’s room for improvement, […] Read more »
Democrats have voter registration advantage in four states
Even before the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic slump, President Donald Trump faced a big challenge in his 2020 re-election effort: a changing American electorate. Young voters have been a challenge for Trump since he entered politics (he lost voters under 40 by double digits in 2016) and every year […] Read more »
Is Kenosha a Warning for the Biden Campaign?
On Wednesday night I remotely conducted two focus groups, one in North Carolina and one in Arizona. The demographics of the groups were the same. Both consisted of 2016 Trump voters. Both were composed of six white, college-educated women (those prized suburban women you hear so much about). And both […] Read more »
Here are the Trump battleground states that Harris can help Biden retake
It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back […] Read more »
Summer ad spending shows Trump in retreat, defense in key states
If you want to know what a campaign really thinks about its chances, you don’t listen to what it says, you watch where it puts its money. This week’s Data Download is looking at how the President Donald Trump and Joe Biden teams (and their main affiliated outside groups) have […] Read more »
Do voters view Biden and Trump as moderate or extreme?
One of the Trump campaign’s main attack lines portrays Joe Biden as a puppet of the radical left and stokes fears of socialism. Is this messaging resonating with voters, and conversely, how extreme or moderate do voters think President Trump is? In political campaigns, opponents often try to portray each […] Read more »