A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »
A Dream Undone: Inside the 50-year campaign to roll back the Voting Rights Act
… What changed this state of affairs was the passage, 50 years ago this month, of the Voting Rights Act. Signed on Aug. 6, 1965, it was meant to correct “a clear and simple wrong,” as Lyndon Johnson said. “Millions of Americans are denied the right to vote because of […] Read more »
In North Carolina and beyond, fix Obamacare
A majority of registered voters in North Carolina – and an even larger percentage of registered voters across the United States – believe Congress should modify the Affordable Care Act, rather than do away with it altogether, should the U.S. Supreme Court strike down a provision of the controversial health […] Read more »
The States That Will Pick the President: The Sunbelt
The emergence of three rapidly growing Sunbelt states as pivotal swing contests in presidential elections may be one of the most unexpected developments in recent American politics. … If Republicans can’t hold North Carolina (with 15 Electoral College votes) and recapture at least Florida (with 29 EC votes), if not […] Read more »
Why Thom Tillis won North Carolina
One of the early myths of the 2014 elections is that Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) ran a great campaign, a talking point repeated by the talking heads in Washington without much supporting evidence. In fact, a hard look at what actually transpired shows a completely different picture. Hagan had the […] Read more »
Senate Battleground Poll: Women’s Reproductive Health Remains an Electoral Priority
While the continuing economic struggles of everyday Americans played a central role in the 2014 election, protecting women’s access to health care, including abortion, played an important part as well. A new NARAL Pro-Choice America and Planned Parenthood Action Fund survey in four key Senate battleground states demonstrates that voters […] Read more »