Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a significant lead in the pivotal states of Michigan and Wisconsin, with President Trump so far failing to retain the overwhelming advantage he enjoyed among white voters there in 2016, according to surveys from The New York Times and Siena College on Monday. … The […] Read more »
Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters
Recent polling shows that President Trump is improving his standing among Latino voters in the presidential race, particularly in Florida. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends among Latinos. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest could be […] Read more »
Here are the Trump battleground states that Harris can help Biden retake
It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back […] Read more »
Biden is eating into Trump’s Rust Belt base
… Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big “blue” wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of […] Read more »
Do you buy that Trump can ride a midwest path to victory in 2020?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling data says about the likelihood of the 2020 electoral map looking like it did in 2016. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Why the Midwest may be Bernie Sanders’ last stand
The middle of the country could prove the end of the road for Sen. Bernie Sanders. The Midwestern states that begin voting Tuesday with primaries in Missouri and Michigan represent the Vermont independent’s best — and possibly last — chance to regain his footing in the Democratic presidential race after […] Read more »