I am just back from two weeks in Greece. A visit to the cradle of democracy and contemplation of events Before the Common Era provides perspective. Besides, Greece is beautiful and retired people get to travel in October. But so much back here is messier now than when I left. […] Read more »
There are a ton of midterm election polls. Here’s a guide for how to read them.
Pre-election polls came in for a drubbing following the 2020 election after underestimating former president Donald Trump’s vote margin by about five percentage points, the highest error in at least 20 years according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research. One possible cause of 2020 errors was something the […] Read more »
Pollsters Try to Learn From Mistakes of 2016 and 2020 Elections
Pollsters this year are taking a range of steps to try to improve the accuracy of their surveys, after significantly understating support for Donald Trump and other GOP candidates in the past two presidential elections. Strategists and pollsters in both parties are worried about whether the steps will work. … […] Read more »
The gory details about how modern polling really works
This week, I reported a story for The Economist that uncovered some very troubling details about pre-election polls being published by Center Street PAC, a new and self-described “non-partisan” super PAC that has pledged support for Democrats in key Senate contests. … The upshot to this narrow story about Center […] Read more »
Has Polling Broken Politics?
… On today’s episode, Jane Coaston brings together two experts to diagnose what we’re getting wrong in both how we conduct polls, and how we interpret the data they give us. Margie Omero is a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO. Nate Silver, who prefers to call himself a […] Read more »
Will America’s Most Pilloried Pollster Get It Right Again?
In 2016, the first year of its existence, the Trafalgar Group was one of the few polling outfits to predict that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trafalgar incorrectly predicted another Trump win but accurately depicted the race as neck and neck in places like Wisconsin, where many […] Read more »