Voters here have reason to be confused this week as they look at two polls, coming out one day apart, with one showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state and the other showing Romney leading Obama. … The Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo did a commendable job of exploring […] Read more »
Party Identification in Florida Polling
Yesterday’s Quinnipiac University Poll on the presidential race in Florida was criticized by Democratic consultant Steve Schale for the partisan and racial composition of its sample. … The biggest problem with this analysis is that Schale got the Quinnipiac numbers wrong! [ cont. ] Douglas Schwartz, Quinnipiac University Poll Read more »
Opinion: Fatally flawed poll
Independent should never be confused with accurate. A poll conducted by North Dakota’s Forum of Fargo-Moorhead is likely independent, as its purveyors claim, but fatally, indeed laughably, flawed. … Mark S. Mellman Read more »
The Death of the Hunch
… The Obama campaign’s “experiment-informed programs” — known as EIP in the lefty tactical circles where they’ve become the vogue in recent years — are designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus […] Read more »
The effect of question wording on levels of presidential support
… If we take specifically the Obama years, on average, our approval ratings have been 3 points more positive than the average. … This all begs the natural question: why do our polls produce approval ratings slightly more favorable for Obama? … Clifford Young, Ipsos Public Affairs Read more »
Assessing the Representativeness of Opinion Surveys
… A new study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that, despite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social and […] Read more »