… Why does our poll look different from other recent polls? Here are answers to a few theories posited in the last day or so about why our poll might be an outlier. [cont.] Ann Selzer Read more »
Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms
One of the ways that our forecast model seeks to make polling data more robust is by calculating and adjusting for “house effects,” which are systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate. … The chart below reflects our model’s current estimate of the house […] Read more »
Q&A: Why Is Obama Winning if We’re on ‘Wrong Track’?
A new Bloomberg News poll was published today with some unexpected results — Obama leading Romney by 13. I talked to Bloomberg pollster Ann Selzer about it on the phone and we finished the conversation via e-mail. [cont.] Francis Wilkinson and Ann Selzer (Bloomberg) Read more »
North Dakota redux
… A few weeks ago I argued that “independent” should not be confused with “accurate,” taking to task the Forum of Fargo-Moorhead for a poll of the North Dakota Senate race, which was “independent” but fatally flawed. With facts now in hand, reassessment is appropriate. [cont.] Mark Mellman Read more »
Is Gallup Biased Against Obama?
Over the weekend, Mark Blumenthal of the Huffington Post published a lengthy review of the Gallup poll’s methodology. It is a technical read, but I encourage you to give it a careful look. Blumenthal’s bottom line is that Gallup tends to place the president’s job approval rating about 2.5 points […] Read more »
Race Matters: Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama
… Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup’s polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms. The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a […] Read more »