… Political pollsters have long struggled to keep pace with changes in how Americans communicate with one another — or don’t. One of their central challenges is the decline in “response rates” among voters. Another is ensuring that their means of reaching people produce accurate reflections of voter sentiment. [cont.] […] Read more »
A reader’s guide to evaluating campaign polls
… With the help of top pollsters and analysts, here’s an easy guide for wading through the coming deluge of polls about this year’s elections. [cont.] Rebecca Cohen, McClatchy Newspapers Read more »
Party Affiliation and Election Polls
In every campaign cycle, pollwatchers pay close attention to the details of every election survey. And well they should. But focusing on the partisan balance of surveys is, in almost every circumstance, the wrong place to look. [cont.] Pew Read more »
Poll Watch: Don’t obsess about party ID
“Too many Republicans” was the cry of many Democratic partisans as they studied pre-election polls in 2004 showing George W. Bush leading. Now, with the shoe on the other foot, “too many Democrats” has become a rapidly spreading theme among Republican and conservative bloggers. The flurries of accusation center on […] Read more »
Pollsters will miss on Nov. predictions
I am predicting a lot of “missed shots” in the public polling game this November. … It’s not that the pollsters aren’t trying, or that they’ve forgotten how to practice their craft. It’s just that lots of loose ends are unraveling in the real world that pollsters confront. [cont.] David […] Read more »
Changes in Cell Phone Only Sampling Methodology for NBC/WSJ
The NBC News/The Wall Street Journal polling methodology has included cell phone only (CPO) respondents since September 2008. … In July 2012, the polling team increased the sample to 300, representing fully 30% of the interviews conducted. [cont. – PDF] Hart & McInturff Read more »