LD Turnout Predict is a propriety model that allows us to identify likely voters with considerably greater accuracy than standard screening techniques. Moreover, the model goes beyond simple classification of registered voters as likely or unlikely, instead assigning an estimated probability of voting to each respondent in a manner designed […] Read more »
MoE Machine
Thoughtful research stays true to the data; assertions about differences in survey results need to be supported by tests of statistical significance. To advance that aim, we offer this margin-of-error calculator – our MoE Machine – as a convenient tool for data producers and consumers alike. The tools below allow […] Read more »
How to Read the Polls
In every presidential cycle, there is a debate about partisan identification in polling. Conservatives complain about too few Republicans being sampled; pollsters, journalists, and liberals respond by saying it is inappropriate to weigh polls by party identification. What to make of all this? [cont.] Jay Cost, Weekly Standard Read more »
Handicapping the Presidential Race: Watch the Samples and Weighting
It’s time for another caution about polls and what they mean. The most recent set of six CBS News/New York Times state polls conducted by Quinnipiac University and the latest Fox News national poll should remind us how important each survey’s sample is in understanding the ballot test. [cont.] Stuart […] Read more »
Facing 21st-Century Challenges in Survey Research
Conducting a representative survey of American adults is an increasingly difficult proposition. Of late, technological and social changes have conspired to increase the cost of reaching and soliciting opinion from the public. [cont.] Daniel Cox, Public Religion Research Institute Read more »
Sorry, Wrong Number
… The polling industry is clearly at a crossroads. In 2016, or 2020, telephone surveys may no longer be the prevailing way to measure what the public thinks or how it intends to vote. But all of the alternatives, for now, have significant drawbacks that put the industry in a […] Read more »