When the term “unskewed polls” entered the political lexicon this fall, courtesy of a conservative blogger convinced that national pollsters were missing a looming Romney landslide, there was a lot of talk about how the right’s polling skepticism was ushering in a landscape in which every observer would become a […] Read more »
Scott Keeter: Understanding Polling
Pew’s Scott Keeter describes how polls are conducted, and discusses challenges facing the polling industry. Read more »
Pollsters’ moment of truth
As the election approaches, it’s not only candidates who face a reckoning. Pollsters, too, confront a moment of truth. The close election could leave many calling the wrong winner. … It’s not just the election. Among pollsters, there’s fear that changing technology (mainly cellphones) and growing public unwillingness to do […] Read more »
Close race leaves pollsters little margin for error
… Polling isn’t as simple as asking 500 people a few questions and adding up their answers. It’s a subtle blend of science and social alchemy that attempts to predict the future: who will show up at the polls and which buttons they will push. “It’s not mysterious, or not […] Read more »
George Gallup and the Mystery of Polls
The polling organization Gallup created a stir earlier this month when it announced that, going forward, it would refine its polling methodology, emphasizing the preferences of voters considered most likely to vote. The immediate consequence of the shift—the obliteration of a five-point advantage for Obama—has raised the hackles of pundits […] Read more »
It’s hard for a pollster out there
… Between declining landline participation rates, the steady rise of cell phone use, the prevalence of cheap “robo polls”, the emergence of on-line polling, the “top-two” primary system in California that has resulted in candidates from the same party facing off in November, and a lot of noise due to the […] Read more »