Gallup was very wrong. Their final poll had Mitt Romney defeating President Obama by 1 percentage point, after giving Romney a lead as high as 7 pt during the final month of the campaign. It seems now their final poll could end up being nearly 5 pt off the mark. […] Read more »
Pollsters reassess their methods after 2012 election miscalculations
Polling outlets that were hammered ceaselessly by both campaigns throughout the campaign cycle are reassessing their methods in the wake of President Obama’s convincing election victory. “We constantly review and tweak some of the things we do and if the data bears it out, we make changes,” Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank […] Read more »
Obama Campaign Polls: How The Internal Data Got It Right
Summing up the lessons learned from a massive investment in data and technology, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has a blunt message for pollsters: “We spent a whole bunch of time figuring out that American polling is broken.” At a Politico forum on Monday, Messina spoke about the campaign’s “three […] Read more »
Nevada’s Odd Numbers: The Complexity of Polling in the Silver State
In the past three electoral cycles Nevada has commanded significant national attention due to the state’s status as both a presidential and congressional battleground state. Yet, despite the Silver State’s increased electoral clout, Nevada remains one of the most difficult states to reliably poll; a consideration that is not without […] Read more »
How the 2012 election polling really was skewed – for Mitt Romney
… The national polls, as it turned out, were not systematically biased against Republican Mitt Romney. The final surveys pointed to President Obama’s re-election, and they were right. That does not mean, however, that the polls weren’t biased. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy Read more »