Why Polling Fails

Eric Cantor wasn’t the only person at a loss for words on Tuesday night. His pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, found itself trying to explain the impossible — how a projected 34 percent lead for the House majority leader 12 days before the election could end up an 11-point loss on […] Read more »

Eric Cantor’s Pollster Tries to Explain Why His Survey Showed Cantor Up 34 Points

Eric Cantor’s pollster whiffed. Less than a week before voters dumped the House majority leader, an internal poll for Cantor’s campaign, trumpeted to the Washington Post, showed Cantor cruising to a 34-point victory in his primary. Instead, Cantor got crushed, losing by 10 percentage points. How did Cantor’s pollster, veteran […] Read more »

Likely Voters: Why Later Not Now

Registered voters early. Likely voters later. Public polls serve their audience well by capturing the views of the electorate at an appropriate time and communicate precisely what group of voters they are including in their tabulations. Early in a contest, before voters have focused on the candidates or the race, […] Read more »