Americans’ opinions of the Democratic Party have fallen slightly from an elevated level this year, and more again view the party unfavorably (55%) than favorably (43%). Meanwhile, 56% have an unfavorable view of the Republican and 40% a favorable one. CONTINUED Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a […] Read more »
Why The California Recall Is Not a Harbinger of What Is to Come on COVID As a Campaign Issue
Some have interpreted Governor Gavin Newsom’s win in the California recall election as a mandate for Democrats to go strong on COVID in their election campaigns. Supporting COVID measures to protect the public is the right stance for any elected official regardless of how the votes may fall, but there […] Read more »
It’s Still All About COVID
For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been watching focus groups. Two of those groups included independent-leaning voters who don’t align themselves strongly with either party. One other group was comprised of so-called Democratic “surge” voters; people who vote infrequently or only in presidential elections. In other words, these are […] Read more »
To Predict Biden’s Political Fate, Keep an Eye on Independents
What is potentially so damaging for President Biden and Democrats isn’t so much the substance of the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. After all, any chance of the conflict turning out well ended about 15 years ago. It was the shambolic execution of it. The intelligence community, Pentagon officials, […] Read more »
How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020
Key Points• The number of swing voters — those who change their minds between presidential elections — has been declining over time.• However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections.• Swing voters helped Joe Biden win the White House, […] Read more »
Election Day 2022 will be Independents’ Day
A few weeks ago, I suggested in this column that independent voters would decide when Joe Biden’s honeymoon is over. Well, Independents’ Day has arrived. While the president’s support from his Democratic base remains strong enough to offset Republican opposition, several recent polls have seen his job approval rating begin […] Read more »