On average, Americans’ political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%). However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, […] Read more »
Why 2022 Rhymes With the Previous Four Midterms
It feels safer to bet on unpredictability than stability in this era of tremendous political and social churn and upheaval. While we know that the midterm elections favor the ‘out’ party (i.e. the party that doesn’t control the White House), many wonder if history can be a reliable guide when […] Read more »
Swing Voters Don’t Like the January 6 Committee Critics
Republicans who disrespect the January 6 Committee are not winning over swing voters. Democrats, meanwhile, remain on firm political ground with “persuadables” when they endorse the committee’s investigation. These are among the top takeaways from 13 Trump-to-Biden voters in key swing states, participating in two online focus groups on December […] Read more »
The GOP’s fruitless search for the next Glenn Youngkin
In the aftermath of Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory in the Virginia governor’s race, Republicans have been scrambling to find other candidates in the image of the outsider businessman who was able to keep some distance from former President Trump. As one Youngkin adviser told National Journal, the key to swing-state […] Read more »
Biden Has Slipped With Independents, Can He Win Them Back?
Unlike partisans, who tend to stick with their side in good times and bad, independent voters are willing to criticize or support the party in power based on current events. They aren’t living in a movement; they are living in the moment. As such, when a president’s job approval ratings […] Read more »
Are independents really so independent?
People repeat it regularly. “Partisanship is in decline. Independents are the booming segment.” Political partisanship entails at least two distinctly different facets, and keeping them separate is important. On the one hand, partisanship is a psychological concept. How do you feel about the parties? I’ve written before about the fact […] Read more »