After a summer of news that favored Democrats and with just two weeks until the midterms, a major new poll from The Times has found that swing voters are suddenly turning to the Republicans. The Times’s Nate Cohn explains what is behind the trend and what it could mean for […] Read more »
Independent voters don’t want mini-Trumps, are bored by Biden
A critical group of swing voters was asked to give a brief, one-word description of the emotions they feel upon seeing President Biden. The answers were bleak: “Indifferent … mixed to indifferent … bored … ambivalent … frustrated … flabbergasted … lost.” Then the same voters, who had cast ballots […] Read more »
Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%
After reaching a high of 62% at the start of 2021, the percentage of Americans believing the existing political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed” has returned to a more typical 56%. At the same time, four in 10 Americans do not see […] Read more »
Hispanics: The newest swing voter
… Hispanic voters are becoming a key part of swing voters that both parties are going to have compete for to build a majority coalition. However, these voters will be more difficult to reach with narrow, base issues. When either party runs base campaigns, they are simply not talking to […] Read more »
Independents will make or break Biden and the Democrats in November
… Anyone who studies election results in depth understands a couple of key points. First, the base will turn out. It always does in both parties. Second, elections are won in the middle. Yet most political strategies, ad buys and messaging center on base issues with a heavy dose of […] Read more »
Arizona’s Latino voters and political independents could spell midterm defeats for MAGA candidates
Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona marches in a Fourth of July parade in Arizona on July 4, 2022. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Gina Woodall, Arizona State University Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in […] Read more »