A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »
These States Could Pick the GOP Nominee, Each for Different Reasons
… As Republicans gathered for their latest debate in Las Vegas this week, more GOP strategists believe their presidential marathon is evolving toward a three-way contest that could divide the party along sharp demographic and geographic lines well into 2016. CONT. Ronald Brownstein, National Journal Read more »
A Midwest Advantage for Scott Walker?
You can call it the Rust Belt or the Industrial Midwest if you like, but when presidential election time comes you should call it precious real estate. The seven states that hold the schools that comprised the old, pre-expansion Big Ten athletic conference – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio […] Read more »
Majority of Illinois Voters Support Full Same-Sex Marriage Equality
There has been a significant increase in support in Illinois for legalizing gay marriage, according to a series of polls by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. … The most recent Simon Poll, conducted Feb. 28 to March 10, shows 54.9 percent of registered Illinois voters […] Read more »
How Chicagoans Voted and Why
An exit poll was conducted by Edison Research in 30 randomly selected Chicago electoral precincts. CONT. New York Times Read more »
Hiding in Plain Sight: Congressional Primaries and the Future of American Politics
Congressional primaries are the neglected stepchildren of American elections. Journalists mostly ignore them, except when a scandal-ridden incumbent is defeated. News organizations never conduct exit polls of primary voters. Congressional primaries also receive scant attention from scholars. … But the surprise arrival of the Tea Party in the 2010 midterm […] Read more »