A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries

A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »

These States Could Pick the GOP Nominee, Each for Different Reasons

… As Republicans gathered for their latest debate in Las Vegas this week, more GOP strategists believe their presidential marathon is evolving toward a three-way contest that could divide the party along sharp demographic and geographic lines well into 2016. CONT. Ronald Brownstein, National Journal Read more »

A Midwest Advantage for Scott Walker?

You can call it the Rust Belt or the Industrial Midwest if you like, but when presidential election time comes you should call it precious real estate. The seven states that hold the schools that comprised the old, pre-expansion Big Ten athletic conference – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio […] Read more »

Hiding in Plain Sight: Congressional Primaries and the Future of American Politics

Congressional primaries are the neglected stepchildren of American elections. Journalists mostly ignore them, except when a scandal-ridden incumbent is defeated. News organizations never conduct exit polls of primary voters. Congressional primaries also receive scant attention from scholars. … But the surprise arrival of the Tea Party in the 2010 midterm […] Read more »