… It is hard to underestimate the degree to which the average American associates Clinton with a single word: “email.” For the most part, this association is negative, not positive. We found that “email” was by far the most frequently used word when we asked Americans what they had read […] Read more »
Post-ABC Tracking Poll finds race tied, as Trump opens up an 8-point edge on honesty
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in the new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll which finds Trump now holds an edge on which candidate is honest and trustworthy. CONT. Scott Clement & Emily Guskin, Washington Post Read more »
Bloomberg Politics/Purple Slice online poll: Clinton Narrowly Beats Trump With Independents
Hillary Clinton holds a slim advantage with independents, a group Republican Mitt Romney won by five percentage points in 2012, with almost half the voters in the crucial bloc saying renewed scrutiny of her e-mail won’t impact their vote. CONT. John McCormick, Bloomberg Politics Read more »
Poll gives Clinton wide lead in Florida, with strong GOP support
Democrat Hillary Clinton enjoys an eight-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, a key presidential battleground, according to a new survey, and that’s due in no small part to significant crossover support from 28 percent of early voting Republicans. The poll, by TargetSmart, a political data firm, and the College […] Read more »
Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem
… Over the past three weeks, our election model and polling for The Economist has shown a consistent lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump of three to five percent. In contrast, some other polls have shown wide swings. … We believe that most of the bounces seen in surveys this […] Read more »
Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
… Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model — his highest probability since Oct. 2 — and 30 percent in polls-plus. Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because […] Read more »