The greatest country in the history of civilization has become dangerously uncivilized. We’re living through the “Thelma and Louise” election, and it doesn’t work out in the end. For months, both candidates have been headed toward the electoral cliff of division and discord — fueled by an electorate seething with […] Read more »
Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge
First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. […] Read more »
After a nearly two-year campaign — our final 2016 picks
… Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March. The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit […] Read more »
Election Update T-1: Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president
Clinton is 89 percent to be the next president, with Trump at 11 percent. Democrats are now 66 percent to take the Senate and 6 percent to take the House. Below is the joint probability of the different parties controlling the president, senate, and house: CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
Latino Voter Wall Blocks Trump’s Path to White House
Latino voters are about to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. The latest Latino Decisions polls show that Republican presidential nominee Trump is losing the Latino vote across the country, including in the battleground states of Nevada (where 17.2 percent of the eligible […] Read more »
Trump and Clinton Finish With Historically Poor Images
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton head into the final hours of the 2016 presidential campaign with the worst election-eve images of any major-party presidential candidates Gallup has measured back to 1956. Majorities of Americans now view each of them unfavorably on a 10-point favorability scale, a first for any presidential […] Read more »