Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range of possible Electoral College outcomes — including the chance of a Donald Trump victory, but also a Clinton landslide […] Read more »
Has the Balance of Power Shifted From the Rustbelt to the Sunbelt?
Since the photo-finish 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore that introduced the United States to the red-and-blue political map, the struggle between the parties for 270 Electoral College votes has resembled trench warfare. With most states locked down for one party or the other, both sides […] Read more »
Final IBD-TIPP Poll: Trump Holds 2-Point Lead Over Clinton As Election Day Arrives
As voters go to the actual polls to cast their ballots in what has been an unprecedented presidential election, Republican Donald Trump held onto a 2-point lead over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton — 45% to 43% — in a four-way matchup, according to the final IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll. […] Read more »
Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate seats, GOP House
Here are my best estimates. The Presidential and House races are a near-replica of 2012. Four Senate races are within one percentage point. Partisans in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina may want to lawyer up for possible recount battles. CONT. Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium Read more »
One Day Left: Counties to Watch
The Wall Street Journal’s ‘data guru’ Dante Chinni joins Chuck Todd to discuss the deepening fault lines along racial, educational and economic lines and outlines which key counties could decide the outcome of the election. Meet the Press Daily, NBC News Read more »
Are There Really Hidden Trump Voters?
Hillary Clinton is favored to become the next president of the United States. Yet many in Donald J. Trump’s camp remain undaunted, arguing that hidden supporters will carry him to the White House. As the polls have narrowed in the last few days, the question of whether pollsters could be […] Read more »