The places that feel most left behind in a changing America propelled Donald Trump to a stunning victory over Hillary Clinton Tuesday night. In his unexpected win, Trump mobilized enormous margins among rural and exurban voters, and crushing advantages among blue-collar whites. In several cases, he prevented Clinton from making […] Read more »
The USC/L.A. Times poll saw what other surveys missed: A wave of Trump support
For most of the last four months, the USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll has been the great outlier of the 2016 campaign — consistently showing a better result for Donald Trump than other surveys did. In light of Tuesday’s election returns, the poll now looks like the only major survey […] Read more »
News Media Yet Again Misreads America’s Complex Pulse
All the dazzling technology, the big data and the sophisticated modeling that American newsrooms bring to the fundamentally human endeavor of presidential politics could not save American journalism from yet again being behind the story, behind the rest of the country. For not the first time this year, the news […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton will gain votes after Election Night. Here’s why.
Most Americans assume that by the wee hours of tomorrow, the national media will declare (unofficially, but still decisively) either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump our next president. Of course, the 2000 election showed that the result might not be settled so quickly. Considering how tight the polls have been, […] Read more »
Final PollyVote forecast: Clinton will win
All numbers are in and, according to the PollyVote, Hillary Clinton will become the first female president of the United States. Clinton will win the popular vote by 5.0 percentage points in the two-party vote (52.5% vs. 47.5%). Based on the PollyVote’s historical error, Clinton’s chance to win is above […] Read more »
30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses
After the votes are counted Tuesday night, how will Americans react if their candidate loses? Speculation abounds. Our recent surveys indicate that supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will respond differently, with Trump voters more likely to say they would protest the legitimacy of the election and encourage lawmakers […] Read more »