Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became […] Read more »
How Trump redrew the electoral map, from sea to shining sea
America’s political geography follows the contours of its physical geography. The coasts are home to urban Democratic havens, while Republicans count on the vast and less densely populated areas that almost always support the ticket. The suburbs that sit in between can swing elections, as they did for Obama in […] Read more »
Behind Trump’s victory: Divisions by race, gender, education
Donald Trump scored an impressive Electoral College victory Nov. 8 after a campaign that revealed deep divisions – by race, gender and education – that were as wide and in some cases wider than in previous elections, according to an analysis of national exit poll data. CONT. Alec Tyson & […] Read more »
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory
Lesson 1: Early political science forecasts were, on average, correct. In January 2014, I wrote a piece called “The Democrats’ uphill battle to 270 electoral votes.” That piece was predicated on conditions in the country at the time: economic growth, the president’s approval rating and the greater tendency of the […] Read more »
Explanations for that shocking 2% shift
The title of this post says it all. A 2% shift in public opinion is not so large and usually would not be considered shocking. In this case the race was close enough that 2% was consequential. Here’s the background: Four years ago, Mitt Romney received 48% of the two-party […] Read more »
The Shock Heard ‘Round the World
I got it wrong. Really wrong. Trump didn’t just win, he crushed it. This is truly the most shocking thing that I have seen in my lifetime. So, what happened? We are going to be digging through the data for a while. But, at its core the Obama coalition lost […] Read more »