Few Americans knew the voters who rejected Hillary Clinton better than her husband. He lived among them growing up, and then studied them with a fanatical intensity during his political rise. But now, with any notion of a dynasty dead and gone, one explanation for the stunning political demise of […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Victory Was Built on Unique Coalition of White Voters
… One of the biggest upsets in American political history was built on a coalition of white voters unlike that of any other previous Republican candidate, according to election results and interviews with voters and demographic experts. Mr. Trump’s coalition comprised not just staunchly conservative Republicans in the South and […] Read more »
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as […] Read more »
Public v. Private Polling
In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial […] Read more »
Eight Things We Learned in This Election
The unique and fascinating 2016 presidential election will be reviewed, analyzed and dissected for years. In the short term, here are eight things we learned from the American people’s perspective as the campaign progressed. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
The Rundown on Latino Voter Election Eve Polling and Latino Exit Polls
On a press call and webinar held today, Matt Barreto, UCLA Professor of Political Science and Chicano Studies, and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, presented the results of the Latino Decisions Election Eve poll. The key finding: Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. Barreto also highlighted […] Read more »