In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial elections (10 or 11 of 12). …
Together with Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer, I also ran two major experimental polls using two interfaces: a display poll on MSN and a mobile-only poll on Pollfish. …
While the binary accuracy was similar to top public polling, my two experimental polls consistently pointed to Clinton’s trouble in the rust belt with: a more Trump leaning voter population and more support for Trump from key demographics. CONT.
David Rothschild, PredictWise