Lesson 1: Early political science forecasts were, on average, correct.
In January 2014, I wrote a piece called “The Democrats’ uphill battle to 270 electoral votes.” That piece was predicated on conditions in the country at the time: economic growth, the president’s approval rating and the greater tendency of the White House to change parties after two terms than one term, also knows as “time for a change.” CONT.
John Sides, The Monkey Cage