The new USC Dornsife Daybreak poll shows troubling signs for the candidacy of President Donald Trump and not just because he’s trailing his opponent by 11 points, 52% – 41%. The president has lost ground in many core demographic groups who voted for him in 2016, including men, people without […] Read more »
Trump continues to break the polling
… The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown […] Read more »
Watch the key 2016 numbers as you watch the 2020 polls
With the convention season ending and the sprint to November about to begin, it might be useful to look once again at the 2016 presidential exit poll. The survey offers a window into that year’s electorate and will allow us to compare where we are now and where we are […] Read more »
The National Polls: 2016 vs. 2020 Before the Conventions
Key Points• Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago.• Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is leading with independents after Clinton […] Read more »
When the V.P. Is ‘the Woman’s Spot’
… Tonight, Senator Kamala Harris will become just the third woman, and the first woman of color, to be nominated for the vice presidency on a major party ticket. Since Ms. Ferraro’s run, Hillary Clinton broke a higher barrier, becoming the Democratic nominee for president, and a historic number of […] Read more »
Here are the Trump battleground states that Harris can help Biden retake
It’s too early to tell how much Joe Biden’s selection of Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate will help boost support for the Democratic ticket among African American voters. But this much is clear: Increasing Black turnout from 2016 levels will be critical to Biden’s ability to win back […] Read more »