Some people call Donald Trump’s term in office the “nothing matters” presidency. The phrase is usually applied to Trump by his detractors, who cannot believe his standing with the American public is stable despite what he says and does. They mean it as good news for Trump. Yet the numbers […] Read more »
Biden’s troubles with Black and Latino voters are overstated
After the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton lost White voters by 15 points, it seemed as if Democrats might need to accept their losses and rely more on minority voters for their next majority. But the opposite has happened. In recent polls, Joe Biden has held President Trump to a […] Read more »
Voters’ Attitudes About Race and Gender Are Even More Divided Than in 2016
During the 2016 presidential campaign, supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton disagreed over nearly everything, including the extent to which Black adults in this country are disadvantaged because of their race and women because of their gender. Today, these differences are even wider among voters who support Trump and […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
Trump likely can’t win without veteran support
… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Democrats are leading in the polls. That means it’s time for them to panic.
The summer is coming to the close of an even-numbered year and Democrats are up in the polls, which means it’s time for them to freak out about the upcoming election. Democrats are nothing if not a self-doubting bunch, and the 2016 election left such a psychic scar that many […] Read more »