Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight […] Read more »
What voters want in a VP
The next big milestone in the presidential election will come when Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump select their running mates, and speculation about who they might choose is rampant. A new CNN/ORC poll finds the Republican electorate largely wants to see Trump select someone who can boost either his military […] Read more »
Trump’s Image Slips; Clinton’s Holds Steady
Americans’ views of Donald Trump have drifted slightly more negative over the past month and a half, with his net favorable rating slipping to -33 for June 13-19 from -28 in the first week of May. Americans’ views of Hillary Clinton have remained significantly less negative than their views of […] Read more »
Celebrities, Lies, And Outsiders: How This Election Surprised One Political Scientist
In the run-up to this election season, The Party Decides seemed to be on every political science nerd’s reading list. The 2008 book by political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller laid out how the invisible primary — party elites’ behind-the-scenes machinations before primary season — […] Read more »
With Trump In The Race, The Battleground Is Everywhere
… The unusual candidacy of Donald Trump has some people wondering whether the electoral map will look different this year than it has in the past. There are good reasons to think the map won’t change much; John Sides and Andrew Gelman, for example, recently suggested that, because states are moving […] Read more »
A Tale of Two Elections: Clinton’s 2016 Primary Performance Versus 2008
One striking aspect of the Democratic primary race was the stark role-reversal in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance compared with her narrow loss to Barack Obama in 2008’s Democratic nomination battle. Whereas she ran against Obama in 2008, she positioned herself as his successor at every turn during her race against […] Read more »