… The unusual candidacy of Donald Trump has some people wondering whether the electoral map will look different this year than it has in the past.
There are good reasons to think the map won’t change much; John Sides and Andrew Gelman, for example, recently suggested that, because states are moving increasingly in unison from election to election, it is unlikely that Trump can “scramble” the map.
But new data that I have analyzed with Bernard Fraga of Indiana University tells a different story. CONT.
Eitan Hersh (Yale), FiveThirtyEight