Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made major speeches this week, and both were, in several respects, talking about exactly the issues the public wants them to discuss. This is good for the election process and good for the nation’s democracy. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
In Trump vs. Clinton, What Happens to the ‘Neither’ Voters?
Take a deep breath, America: this is shaping up to be a hold-your-nose election. … In nearly 20 national polls conducted this month, Mrs. Clinton has led in every one, by an average of nearly six points. … But note that Mrs. Clinton’s numbers remain well below 50%. That’s because […] Read more »
Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to Win
… Even allowing for the long and strange year that it’s been, the arithmetic for Trump is getting increasingly challenging. With women making up about 52 percent of the electorate and Trump getting buried among women voters, it’s hard for him to do well enough among men to make up […] Read more »
Pennsylvania to Washington: The 2016 Election Is Not Over
“Everyone in Washington wants to write that this election is over,” cautions respected pollster Peter D. Hart, that Republican Donald Trump — after six weeks of highly public unforced errors — has effectively shattered his chances of winning the White House. Hart, after conducting a two-hour focus group of 11 […] Read more »
No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November
… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »
Gender Matters In This Election, But Other Factors Probably Matter More
More than 90 percent of Americans would be willing to vote for a well-qualified woman for president, according to a Gallup poll that posed the question last year, yet 22 percent of respondents said that they thought “most of the people they know” would not “vote for a presidential candidate […] Read more »