The convention bounce is a long-established pattern in presidential election cycles. … So what kind of bounce should we expect for Trump and Clinton? For two reasons, it’s a fairly complicated question for Trump: First, the Democratic National Convention immediately follows the Republican National Convention, which may stifle Trump’s uptick […] Read more »
What We’ve Learned From the RNC Thus Far
… Despite Trump’s promise to bring us a Hollywood-type of show, the programming in Cleveland is no different than any convention I’ve ever attended. There are speakers at a podium. There are delegates with pre-produced signs. There’s an in-house band playing cheesy musical interludes. The most disruptive candidate in modern […] Read more »
How the 2016 Presidential Race Defies all the Rules and Remains Competitive
Until about a year ago when I told people what I do for a living, I got one of two responses – a blank stare or a prediction about the 2016 election. Now, I usually just get a three letter response and I’m pretty sure they don’t stand for “Wow, […] Read more »
More Republicans Favor Path to Citizenship Than Wall
Two-thirds of Americans oppose immigration plans advocated by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump — building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. In contrast, 84% favor a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants living in the U.S., a plan backed by Democratic nominee […] Read more »
If Americans Perceive A World In Chaos, Will They Turn To Trump?
… Polls suggest that many Americans agree with Trump: About 70 percent of them say the country is on the wrong track, and the percentage has gradually climbed this year. There’s also some contradictory evidence. A plurality of Americans say they’re better off personally than they were eight years ago, for […] Read more »
Pick a poll: Is the race tied, or is Clinton beating Trump?
Either Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Donald Trump, or Trump and Clinton are virtually tied and the momentum is with the Republican. … At this point, you can do one of two things. You can pick the poll that you want to believe (as many do), or you […] Read more »