A new national poll from Democracy Corps conducted in the days leading up to the GOP convention shows a rise in Hillary Clinton’s negative image and a tightening 3-point presidential race; but this poll reveals no changes to the structure of the race which indicates Clinton can quickly raise her […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004
There has been a lot of polling over the past few days in advance of the Republican National Convention, which got underway Monday in Cleveland. But it mostly confirmed the conclusion our election forecast models had arrived at late last week: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 or 4 […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Has a 76% Chance to Win the Presidency
For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. … This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and […] Read more »
The presidential election polls agree on one thing: Voters rue their choices
The GOP convention has brought a surfeit of new polls, and although they differ slightly on the standing of the two major candidates, they concur that voters don’t like their choices. … Rather than flocking to a third choice, many voters are being driven by negative feelings about the candidate […] Read more »
Trump, Clinton, and the Realignment of Battleground States
The tumultuous 2016 presidential race appears poised to realign the states at the tipping point of American politics. Since Bill Clinton’s first victory in 1992, Democratic presidential candidates have consistently run better in the aging, predominantly white and heavily blue-collar swing states clustered in the Rustbelt than in the younger, […] Read more »
Confused by Contradictory Polls? Take a Step Back
It has been a rocky few weeks all over the world. Only a few surprising presidential poll results have broken through in a news cycle dominated by shootings by and of the police, the F.B.I.’s decision not to indict Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick, more terror in France and […] Read more »