Is Clinton’s Lead A Bounce Or A New Equilibrium?

Hillary Clinton continues to poll strongly in surveys conducted after the Democratic National Convention, which show her having received a convention bounce and gaining a meaningful lead over Donald Trump. … There are some hints that Clinton’s post-convention lead over Trump will eventually settle in at about 7 percentage points, […] Read more »

Pessimism Might Not Be a Winning Bet for Republicans

A political lifetime ago, Ronald Reagan’s pollster seized on this question to frame the campaign’s argument during his 1980 presidential campaign: “Is the country headed in the right direction, or is it on the wrong track?” … In the New York Times-CBS News poll for July, 26 percent of respondents […] Read more »

Pennsylvania Is Always Purple (And Other Electoral College Observations)

Over the weekend, the New York Times published an article titled “Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go,” which suggested that the electoral college was effectively tilted in favor of Hillary Clinton this year. The piece referred to a “daunting electoral map” producing a “narrow” and “precarious” path […] Read more »