What a month. At the end of a series of tumultuous events and two political conventions, the presidential race is more or less where it was before it all began: Hillary Clinton has a clear lead. …
Convention bounces often prove to be short-lived, as the name implies and as Mr. Trump’s experience proves. Often, post-convention bounces don’t even reflect real changes in support — just changes in how likely people are to respond to a poll or to indicate their support for a candidate.
With that history in mind, Mrs. Clinton’s lead would be expected to fade a bit over the next few weeks. But her comfortable advantage in the post-convention polls suggests that her support can fade and that she can still maintain a clear lead.
There are also reasons to think that Mrs. Clinton’s bounce is likelier to stick than most. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times