Donald J. Trump’s support among white men, the linchpin of his presidential campaign, is showing surprising signs of weakness that could foreclose his only remaining path to victory in November. If not reversed, the trend could materialize into one of the most unanticipated developments of the 2016 presidential campaign: That […] Read more »
Clinton Rises to 348 Electoral Votes, Trump Drops to 190
… Since 2000, we’ve watched New Hampshire become more reliable for the Democrats in presidential years. Neighbor John Kerry of Massachusetts won 50.2% in 2004, and Barack Obama easily carried the Granite State in 2008 (54.1%) and 2012 (52.0%). And now, Hillary Clinton is doing so well that her polling […] Read more »
Why Clinton Doesn’t Have This Race Locked Up
… A lot of Democrats I know have started to talk as though this election is over. They point to the fact that no candidate since 1952 who was leading at this point in the election cycle, a few weeks after the conventions, has lost the popular vote. So if […] Read more »
Americans Don’t Trust Her. But Why?
A Clinton with a trust problem. We’ve seen that before. It was 1992, and doubts about Bill Clinton’s integrity, stoked by his marital infidelities and avoidance of the Vietnam War, were the biggest threat to his presidential campaign. Stanley Greenberg, a top Democratic campaign strategist, devised a secret plan to […] Read more »
Demography Explains Perceptions of Clinton and Trump
… One of my favorite work-related pastimes is sifting through polling data (I know, it’s sad). In my favorite national survey, the NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton led Trump overall by 9 percentage points, 47 to 38 percent, in the two-way ballot test. … It is the demographic splits that are most […] Read more »
Gender, Education Split Among White Voters Key to 2016 Election
A potentially record-breaking gap in preference between two groups — college-educated white women for Hillary Clinton and non-college-educated white men for Donald Trump — is one of the most striking features of in the 2016 presidential race. Clinton’s overwhelming support among nonwhites, a growing share of the U.S. population, means […] Read more »