… A lot of Democrats I know have started to talk as though this election is over. They point to the fact that no candidate since 1952 who was leading at this point in the election cycle, a few weeks after the conventions, has lost the popular vote. So if Clinton’s lead in the polls is clear and the polling leader at this point in the campaign has never lost, why aren’t Clinton’s chances of winning according to our models even higher?
There are a couple of answers. CONT.
Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight