Asking experts to predict what is going to happen is probably one of the oldest forecasting methods available. When it comes to predicting election outcomes, we expect experts to have experience in reading and interpreting polls, putting them in historical context, and estimating the likely effects of upcoming campaign events. […] Read more »
National Polls Show The Race Tightening — But State Polls Don’t
Hillary Clinton moved into a clear polling lead over Donald Trump just after the Democratic convention, which ended on July 28. … As of last Tuesday, there wasn’t much evidence of an overall shift in the race. Trump was gaining ground in some polls but losing ground in a roughly […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton extends lead in Ohio
In Ohio, which is so critical to Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes, it is Hillary Clinton who has extended her lead and is now up six points, 46 percent to 40 percent; she was up four points in July. … In Iowa, the two are even, each with 40 percent support. […] Read more »
Why Values Voters Value Donald Trump
As the number of Republican politicians and conservative pundits who renounce Donald J. Trump continues to rise, one important contingent remains steadfast in its support: conservative white evangelicals. … Conservative evangelicals are fully aware of Mr. Trump’s flaws, but they are supporting him anyway because they believe his election is […] Read more »
The Message in a Longtime Conservative Tilting Away From Trump, Toward Clinton
In this election cycle, polls have been the least reliable guide to understanding what voters are looking for in the next president of the United States. They tell us who is ahead and behind at a given moment but don’t convey what is going on behind respondents’ preferences. Still, I […] Read more »
Road to 270: CNN’s latest electoral college map
August has thus far been kind to Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers both nationally and in some critical battleground states. The former secretary of state has been able to ride a post-convention bounce and mostly uncontested television airwaves to her strongest position yet in CNN’s Electoral College outlook this year. This […] Read more »