With eight weeks to go before Election Day, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton in Ohio and the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states. CONT. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »
Honesty honestly
Pundits now regularly proclaim that Hillary Clinton has an almost singular and unique problem with voters who don’t think she’s honest or forthright. These pundits are wrong, both as a matter of fact and of voter perception. Nonetheless, the commentariat has elevated this view to the lofty level of a […] Read more »
Tracing Donald Trump’s Rust-Belt Route
Any path Donald Trump might take to the presidency inevitably leads through the Rust Belt and industrial Midwest—the places the Republican nominee describes as “rusting and rotting” war zones of manufacturing decline. … Since the parties’ conventions this summer, the candidates and their running mates have held nearly 40 campaign […] Read more »
Univision poll: The Latino vote in 4 key swing states
Barely 56 days before the presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among likely Hispanic voters in four battleground states where the Latino vote may prove to be decisive, according to an exclusive bipartisan survey conducted for Univision Noticias. The Democratic candidate leads her Republican opponent […] Read more »
Why Clinton’s narrow lead is bigger than it looks
… Big swings in polls get the big headlines because they imply big changes in a race. But over the past three-and-a-half decades, I’ve grown skeptical of big swings in polls at this late date, and I’ve seen only modest changes in voting behavior in presidential elections. It isn’t that […] Read more »