… California’s likely voters have held steady on two important measures over the last several months. In the latest PPIC Survey, California likely voters’ support for the recall of Governor Newsom (39% yes, 58% no) continues to fall short of the majority needed for his removal and replacement—a margin that […] Read more »
Four ways to think about Abbott’s and DeSantis’s 2022 prospects
Even pre-pandemic, Republican Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were obsessed with “own the libs” moves that at times broke with core democratic values, mostly notably DeSantis’s efforts to make it harder for felons to regain their voting rights. But covid-19 has shown the serious danger […] Read more »
An Update on the California Recall
By the numbers, the effort to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom should have little to no chance of success. … Back in July, when Newsom announced that the special recall election would be held on September 14, things were looking pretty good for the Governor. COVID cases were down, Newsom’s […] Read more »
Why the California recall is within the margin of error and what that means for Gavin Newsom
The idea that California voters might recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like a Republican fantasy and nothing more at first glance. After all, Newsom won by 24 points in 2018 and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took the state by 29 points last fall. Now though, Democrats are worried […] Read more »
Hated by the right people
The campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is already underway, although the presence of Donald Trump means it’s not as open as it would normally be. Ron DeSantis seems to have moved to the top of the field–Predicit has him at 0.23, with Trump at 0.31 and everyone else […] Read more »
What Virginia Tells Us About the Midterms
Off-year elections are a Rosetta Stone for analysts and operatives. While their political significance is universally overstated, these elections drive media narratives and offer clues as to how the political environment is shaping up for the midterm elections in 2022. In addition to the California recall election on September 14, […] Read more »