The political numbers that explain the Abbott and DeSantis migrant decisions

Republican governors like Greg Abbott of Texas, and more recently Florida’s Ron DeSantis, have been making a habit of sending migrants located in their Sun Belt states to northern Democratic-voting cities. While there may be policy reasons for their decisions, there are clear political considerations as well. Both men, especially […] Read more »

High Floors + Low Ceilings = Tight Races

Don’t be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators being unusually cautious in their pronouncements (those in the partisan cheerleading roles will exhibit their predictable responses). After all, the trajectory of this campaign has already departed that of any midterm election in modern times. […] Read more »

Texas: Gov. Abbott maintains lead

The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. … Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll […] Read more »

Pennsylvania: Economy, abortion shape midterm races

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leads Mehmet Oz by five points among Pennsylvania’s likely voters, in a Senate race that seems still fluid, with Republicans less enamored by the candidates they nominated, and Democrats fighting economic headwinds. It’s a race in which voters are thinking about the national implications, even […] Read more »