The 2022 midterms are a year away and much of the next 12 months will be spent looking for winners and losers and discussing the nation’s political balance of power. But the bigger, broader story in politics today is the identity crises in the nation’s two dominant political parties. What […] Read more »
The California Recall Could Be a Road Map for Democrats
California Governor Gavin Newsom is confronting the toughest challenge Democrats may face in next year’s midterm election—and guiding his party toward a possible solution as the Republican-driven recall against him enters its final days. One key reason the president’s party historically fares so poorly in midterm elections is that its […] Read more »
Four ways to think about Abbott’s and DeSantis’s 2022 prospects
Even pre-pandemic, Republican Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were obsessed with “own the libs” moves that at times broke with core democratic values, mostly notably DeSantis’s efforts to make it harder for felons to regain their voting rights. But covid-19 has shown the serious danger […] Read more »
Hated by the right people
The campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is already underway, although the presence of Donald Trump means it’s not as open as it would normally be. Ron DeSantis seems to have moved to the top of the field–Predicit has him at 0.23, with Trump at 0.31 and everyone else […] Read more »
Mask wars preview the 2022 battle for the Sun Belt
The fierce political struggles erupting across the Sun Belt this summer over mask mandates and other public health precautions against Covid-19 point toward epic governors’ races next year that will test how much the political balance of power has changed in the rapidly growing states at the epicenter of the […] Read more »
Census shows a more diverse, urban America
Last week was nerd Christmas for political data devotees. The U.S. Census released the latest batch of redistricting data from its 2020 headcount, including key measures on race, ethnicity and geography. And two key elements emerged out of the data drop: The country is growing more racially and ethnically diverse […] Read more »