Young people, who overwhelmingly favored Democrats, had one of their highest turnout rates ever in a midterm and shaped results across the country. According to day-after estimates from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, […] Read more »
Election Night Poll Take-Away Points
Despite the record-breaking negative mood of the country, and lackluster Biden approval scores, the GOP’s narrow margin on the generic ballot translated into a smaller advantage than anticipated in the US House. Voters’ top issues were “rising prices and inflation” and “abortion,” followed by “the economy and jobs” and “protecting […] Read more »
Democrats fend off headwinds from Biden and economy: Exit poll analysis
Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Joe Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds. Their competitiveness came down to a variety of factors — support for abortion rights, negative views of Donald Trump, […] Read more »
Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls
Key Points• One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.• However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that […] Read more »
2020 Post-Mortem (Part Two): The American Dream Voter
Today Equis is releasing Part Two of a post-mortem on the Latino vote in the 2020 election. … In Part One, we attempted to document the nature and composition of the gains that Donald Trump made with a small subset of Hispanic voters. In the sequel, we use new research, […] Read more »
Explaining the Republican Victory in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Conversion or Mobilization?
Key Points• The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically.• This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm advantage generating better turnout for […] Read more »