… Was the Fox call the result of the most sophisticated and accurate modeling, or more like being “right” when calling heads in a coin flip? It appears to be the latter — a lucky and dangerous guess — based on a review of televised statements by the Fox News […] Read more »
Anti-Trump GOP voters mostly loyal in 2022, but not entirely
… While former President Donald Trump holds a tight grasp on much of the GOP base, there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members. Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, AP VoteCast shows. Still, the extensive national survey […] Read more »
In elections, a win is a win. And Republicans won
… Republicans won the House, after just four years, but with a thin margin. Voters, especially independents, were motivated by economic issues, their unhappiness with the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s leadership, and they wanted solutions. But a poor Republican economic campaign message, focused on attacking Pelosi […] Read more »
Black support for GOP ticked up in this year’s midterms
Black voters have been a steady foundation for Democratic candidates for decades, but that support appeared to show a few cracks in this year’s elections. Republican candidates were backed by 14% of Black voters, compared with 8% in the last midterm elections four years ago, according to AP VoteCast, an […] Read more »
GOP stumbles with independents contributed to midterm woes
… Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018 when they swept into power by picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among […] Read more »
Who are the extremists?
… As I argued here earlier, poor-quality Republican candidates played a key role in suppressing the widely anticipated red wave, and their extremism contributed significantly to the diminished quality of many defeated Republicans. But before Democratic triumphalism becomes dogma, it is important to recognize that, in the public mind, both […] Read more »