Elizabeth Warren’s seemingly inexorable rise and Joe Biden’s dogged resilience have been the two major stories of the Democratic primary so far. Over the next and more intense period of campaigning in the early states, the story could be very different. The two will probably have to confront their vulnerabilities […] Read more »
The picture in Iowa just got muddier, not clearer
For all of the legitimate (and occasionally overblown) hand-wringing about “horse race” coverage of national politics, it is a lamentable fact that horse racing generally offers a good analogy for polling. … On Tuesday afternoon, Monmouth University gave us a new snapshot of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination […] Read more »
Five Polling Results That May Change the Way You Think About Electability
Democratic voters have a clear ideological choice in this year’s presidential primaries. But if there is any lesson from the recent New York Times/Siena College surveys of the six closest states carried by the president, it’s that the Democrats have been presented with a series of choices about how to […] Read more »
Running For President May Make You More Unpopular In Your Home State
Over the course of this election cycle so far, 25 major presidential candidates — by FiveThirtyEight’s definition — have entered the race for the Democratic nomination. That gobsmacking number sparked criticism that there were perverse incentives to run for president even if a candidate plainly had no shot at winning […] Read more »
Progressives are going to have to pick: Sanders or Warren?
Only a few months from now, populist Democratic progressives around the country hoping to elect one of their own to the White House will need to choose between Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Do they back the angry Democratic socialist, or the feisty, anti-corporate populist who […] Read more »
Democrats have put their differences above beating Trump. Bloomberg is a symptom not a cure.
A broad coalition now exists to throw President Trump out of office. Every day, he reminds Americans why the country would be so much better off without him. Which makes you wonder: Are Democrats determined to shred themselves into irreconcilable factions? Will they allow this utterly corrupt and unfit man […] Read more »