… As I pointed out in July, there is a slew of evidence that more moderate candidates have done better than those closer to ideological poles in House elections over the last decade. Now, the difference isn’t so great as to make Warren unelectable, and there are other factors at […] Read more »
It’s Old and White, but New Hampshire Is Not Republican
… As the second-oldest and fourth-whitest state in the union, New Hampshire might seem at first glance a Republican paradise. But upper New England whites don’t include many evangelicals or racists raging against minority incursions, since minorities, including immigrants, have largely stayed away. It’s a purple state with an all-Democratic […] Read more »
Democrats in Battleground States Prefer Moderate Nominee
Democrats in the country’s most pivotal general election battlegrounds prefer a moderate presidential nominee who would seek common ground with Republicans rather than pursue an ambitious, progressive agenda, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of primary voters across six states. … While Democrats have unambiguously moved to the […] Read more »
Unpacking a Panoply of Polls
It’s hard to determine where to start a political discussion these days. Impeachment? The Democratic presidential-nomination contest? President Trump’s prospects for reelection? The calendar can help guide us, as can a slew of new and highly regarded polls, which touch on all three of those storylines. Sunday marked the point […] Read more »
Trump vs. ?? — Swing State Edition
This week, we discuss head-to-head match-ups between President Trump and top Democratic candidates in key swing states. Then we dissect Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Medicare-for-all plan, and the polling around Medicare-for-all. Finally, we look at new caucus polling out of Iowa and Nevada, and examine a few results from Election Day […] Read more »
Nonvoters Are a Source of Hope for Democrats. But Maybe a False Hope.
… For Democrats, nonvoters have long been a source of hope. They are disproportionately young, nonwhite and low-income, demographics that favor the party. In this year’s Democratic primary, turning nonvoters into voters would seem to offer a path to victory for candidates who might seek to win the general election […] Read more »